A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
