Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
